Henry Gee, The Decline and Fall of the Human Empire

 

- This new book by Henry Gee, the celebrated British paleontologist and senior editor of the prestigious scientific journal Nature, is well worth reading. 

- Gee has the ability, rare for academics, to write exceptionally clear and rhythmic sentences. His prose sucks you in. (A bit like Paul Krugman on economics). His early chapters in Part One describe in detail the history of Homo Sapiens since its emergence around 315,000 years ago, and its very likely demise in only 10,000 years time. 

- Most readers will skim these chapters unless they're fascinated by paleontology and space. But in Part Two Gee turns to our current times and where the human race is likely to be in only 200 years time. They are fascinating chapters. 

- We learn about the rapid growth of the world’s human population over the last century particularly, and the rapid decline that awaits us over the next two centuries. (And after ten thousand years homo sapiens will be wiped from the face of the earth all together).

- I virtually underlined every second sentence of these chapters. Here are some amazing numbers:

World population in 1964: 3.267 billion. Population now: 8.2 billion. Likely population in 2100: 6.29 billion. (China: 1.412 billion now; 732 million by 2100). Likely population by 2200: between 2.6 and 5.6 billion. By 2300: between 0.9 and 3.2 billion. 

Countries with increasing populations: Nigeria: 200 million now but 791 million by 2100. Many countries will see a substantial increase in population by 2100, including Australia, because of substantial African immigration, and Israel's population will grow from 9.5 million now to 24 million in 2100 because of its higher fertility rate.

Why is the human population on the cusp of steep decline? Lower birth rates due to the educational empowerment of women and the increasing take-up of contraception. Also, for reasons nobody can quite fathom, human sperm count has fallen, both markedly and recently. 

Climate change: Up to 200 million people (3% of all humans) live in coastal cities that will be below mean high tide by 2100. If the temperature rise gets as far as 4% above pre-industrial levels, a billion people could be flooded out. Cities such as New York could be two metres underwater by the end of this century.

Extreme heat could depopulate large areas of the Middle East, where the current inhabitants will have to move or die. Deadly heatwaves of up to 55 degrees will be an everyday reality. A huge migration of refugees from Africa into Eurasia will take place. 

Edward St Aubyn, Parallel Lines

 

- The only reason to read this new novel from the celebrated British writer Edward St Aubyn is to luxuriate in his prose. It's glitzy and electric with a brilliant comic edge, and the dialogue snappy and quip-loaded. It's so upper-class English. Utterly delightful.

- Sebastian is young man suffering from a mental health issue. His psychotherapist, Martin, who considers Sebastian one of his most difficult patients, labels it ‘delusional omnipotence’. Sebastian’s road to recovery is central to the novel. 

- Also central is the lifelong after-effects of mothers putting their newborns up for adoption. Especially if the babies are twins and adopted by separate couples, and are never aware of their intimate relationship till decades later. 

- Sebastian is told by a young mother he meets, Olivia, that she's his bio-sis, something she's just found out from her birth mother. 'Un-fucking-believable' he screams and abruptly leaves. Olivia was adopted at birth but Sebastian, after two years, was sent to an institution. Olivia labels it the ‘Preferential Twin Adoption Syndrome’. She reflects on Sebastian. Was he the sacrificial twin?

- After months of intense treatment Sebastian comes to accept his predicament and recognises 'we can be vulnerable and strong'. 

- Olivia is a podcaster and is working on a series focussed on the world's disasters - climate change, inequality, environmental destruction, etc. 

- Aubyn litters the novel with fabulous denigrations of American and British politics. Here's an example:

...isn’t this sort of national decline just what happens when we have Etonian prime ministers? Eden and Macmillan gave us the Suez Canal and the Profumo affair; Cameron and Johnson have given us Brexit and Partygate.....the international fuck-ups were based on the same arrogance and exaggeration of Britain's autonomy and the scandals on the same combination of self-indulgence and mendacity.

- There is much more to this novel than my brief description can cover. It's not an easy read and can sometimes get tedious, nevertheless is definitely worth staying with. It's so invigorating. 

 

John Lyons, A Bunker in Kyiv

 

- Acclaimed journalist and Global Affairs Editor at the ABC, John Lyons, with help from his wife Sylvie Le Clezio, a documentary filmmaker, has written an absorbing story of the Ukrainian people's defence of their nation against Russia's aggression for over three years now. 

- As with his previous book, the fascinating Balcony Over Jerusalem, Lyons' ability to write clear, lucid prose totally engages the reader. He delves deep into the lives of ordinary citizens and their courage and dedication to saving their nation. They are living relatively normal lives despite the bombing, but they are volunteering for all sorts of jobs and activities to aid the war effort. What we are witnessing is 'the rebirth of the Ukrainian identity' as one woman says. And as a Sydney academic says ‘Whether formal or informal, volunteering contributes to the creation of new norms and values of citizenship in Ukraine…strengthening the social fabric’. 

- We're immersed in the richness of Ukrainian culture, society and economy. Surrogacy is a big industry in Ukraine, and was severely disrupted by Russia's relentless aggression. As were medical operations such as cancer treatment. Electricity and gas were out and hospitals bombed. Prosthetics availability ended and mental health programs brought to an end.  

- The Ukrainians are very concerned about their children. Eight year old Yegor wrote a diary. It is full of sadness, gentleness and generosity. The Russian soldiers would kidnap the children and try to indoctrinate them. Others were maimed and killed. Witnessing this Lyons virtually screams ‘Russia is the aggressor. Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia continues to launch attacks. Ukraine is the victim’. Russia now holds nearly 20% of Ukraine's territory.

- Ukraine has strengths though. For instance The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) are experts at resistance to Russian cyber attacks. Cyber security is the new space race, and Ukraine is leading the way. Drones (as we saw just a few days ago) are constructed by dedicated engineers and volunteers working day and night, and they are critical to its defence.

- Lyons tells the story of Volodymyr Zelensky, a former actor and comedian. From playing the president in a TV series to being elected as the real one. Although his first two years as a politician were ordinary and disorganised, he eventually emerged as the leader of the moment, and has virtually total support from the Ukrainian people. His communication and oratorical skills are helping enormously. 

- As for Vladimir Putin, ‘...a system of permanent lies permeates all levels of power’ in the Russia he has created, as one academic says. 'Through his propaganda, political power and physical property, Putin has made himself untouchable'. According to him 'Ukraine is not a real country'.  

- As Lyons reflects on Trump's 'contribution' he can't help but be pessimistic, and concludes that Ukraine is slowly losing this war. ‘…the US has gone deliberately slow on delivery of weapons’. Biden also slowed support, ‘…more scared of a Russian defeat than a Ukrainian defeat’. What we are witnessing is a major strategic failure by America and NATO. They are not providing enough weapons systems such as missiles, tanks and aircraft (as EU leaders recently recognised). This has to change, and dramatically, to turn the tide in Ukraine's favour. As for the nuclear threat, Putin knows NATO would respond dramatically, so is obviously hesitant to pursue that option. 

- Lyons closes the book on a more optimistic level. He meets a young man in Lithuania who proclaims that despite the fact that Russia has become a ruthless, brutal machine, the people of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are now supportive of NATO. ‘NATO is what stands between us and torture’. 

- John Lyons has written a clearly argued and frequently passionate treatise on Ukraine's dramatic predicament. I found it very persuasive indeed. It's a must read. 

James Bradley, Landfall

- Celebrated Australian literary author James Bradley has written a highly dramatic and very intense story about a police investigation into a missing child in Sydney, a city days away from being hit by a huge cyclone, the third in four years. 

- It's set decades into the future when the climate catastrophe is upending societies around the world. And as Bradley makes clear, disastrous weather events are not the only dimension to this crisis. Social cohesion is also being ripped apart. Anger, resentment, and the hatred of authority are dominant and destructive. 

- Sea levels have risen dramatically and have destroyed densely populated coastal areas. Houses, apartment blocks, shops, schools - all are in ruins. The wealthy can move into safer areas but the majority are stranded and unemployed, and are finding it difficult to cope with the dilapidation all around them. The heat is unrelenting, day and night. Daytime temperatures are frequently in the late forties and early fifties. The aged, in particular, are very vulnerable.  

- Bradley also addresses the refugee issue. The weather has become unbearable in many nations. Australia is seen as an attractive destination. Interestingly most names of the main characters in the novel are Indian, Indonesian, or Middle Eastern. Sadiya Azad, the leading detective on the case to find the missing young girl, Casey, is of Bangladeshi origin. 

- One Indonesian teenager's 'boat people' trip to Australia is described in horrific detail. Many of the refugees die on the way and their bodies are tossed overboard without ceremony. Abusive and contemptible border force officers with guns confront them on the beach when they land and they’re herded into camps. The teenager eventually escapes and becomes central to the story's resolution. 

- Digital technology is also at the forefront. AI ‘assistants’ are as common as smartphones. Unfortunately CCTV is not everywhere and videos still frequently lack sufficient clarity and quality.  

- The police investigation into the missing girl is described in rich detail. There are suspects and they are questioned relentlessly, including corrupt real estate developers, convicted child molesters, and low level desperates. Bradley portrays all these characters vividly, as he does the two police detectives leading the investigation. They are dedicated and work day and night, despite family issues. 

- When the cyclone hits Bradley provides a stunning description of it. He is a writer of extraordinary talent, and his deep understanding of the climate catastrophe we face has enabled him to write this ambitious and powerful novel. 

Dominic Amerena, I Want Everything

 

- Amerena's debut novel is written in punchy, lively, colourful prose, and has a delightful comic edge. It's absolutely captivating. 

- It's a brilliantly told story of literary liars. It's a damning critique of mothers and men. It's a story of love and devotion. It's a story of desperation and pain. 

- The unnamed narrator (what a cliche that is) tracks down an old woman he recognised at the local pool. He is certain she is Brenda Shales, a brilliant writer of only two highly controversial novels, who has not been seen for decades. She'd become a recluse. Both bestselling novels were a ‘controlled fury…resolutely against men, marriage and the family’. They were published in the early 1970's, at the same time as Germaine Greer's iconic The Female Eunuch.  

- He follows her to an aged care facility, and is mistakenly introduced to her by a nurse as her grandson. He submits to that lie, which becomes a central theme of the novel. 

- Over the course of a few weeks Brenda tells him her life story. She became pregnant when a high school student, and her very conservative parents - so typical of the time - forced her to put the baby up for adoption. She subsequently had numerous low paying jobs including one as a secretary for the Husbands Emancipation League, men who hated Gough Whitlam and his promise to introduce the No Fault Divorce legislation, which would enable women to divorce their abusive husbands without needing to submit to restrictive legal and court processes. Those meetings would inspire her second angry and ferocious novel which would become a worldwide bestseller. 

- There are many twists and turns in this novel, some surprising, but they all add a richness and depth to the tale. What is especially pleasing, and quite shocking really, is the ending. All the threads are brought together in a very surprising but satisfying way.

- This review by Bri Lee captures the book superbly:

This novel is that most exquisite rarity: a brilliant concept, brilliantly executed. Amerena has so precisely rendered and skewered Australian literary culture that I was shrieking with delight while I squirmed in recognition. The tease of a mystery plot had me turning the pages non-stop, but there were real gem-like sentences in here too. And on top of that, he can write women. And on top of that, he can write writing! 

Jens Beckert, How We Sold Our Future: The Failure to Fight Climate Change

 

- This is a depressing read, because it’s profoundly realistic. 

- Let's not kid ourselves. Where the world is now, and where it inevitably will be at the end of this century, despite the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degree target, is almost certainly going to be close to double that. 

- Jens Beckert has been Director at the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies and Professor of Sociology in Cologne since 2005. He previously taught in Gottingen, New York, Princeton, Paris and Harvard University. His new book, just published in English, is full of the gritty detail that makes his case utterly credible. It's a persuasive, sobering read. 

- Here's part of the blurb: For decades, we have known about the dangers of global warming. Despite this, greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase. How can we explain our failure to take the necessary measures to stop climate change? Why are societies, in the face of the mounting threat to ourselves and our children, so reluctant to take action? 

Our apparent inability to implement basic measures to combat climate change is due to the nature of power and incentive structures affecting companies, politicians, voters, and consumers...climate change is an inevitable product of the structures of capitalist modernity which have been developing for the past five hundred years. Our institutional and cultural arrangements are operating at the cost of destroying the natural environment, and attempts to address global warming are almost inevitably bound to fail. Temperatures will continue to rise and social and political conflicts will intensify. 

- The book is only 174 pages long, plus 52 pages of Notes. Unfortunately it's a hardcover and is priced at A$51.95. Nevertheless, save up and buy it. Please.