- Once again Hugh White proves he's a must read on defence and foreign policy issues. He brings a clear, deep and wide perspective on all the issues confronting Australia now and into the future. He's a refreshing voice because he's not trapped in the dated, cringing, predictable views of most of the commentary coming out of the defence industry and its conservative think tank arse lickers in Canberra.
- This Quarterly Essay is on many levels a confronting read. We live now in a new nuclear age. Although White doesn't shrink away from demolishing Trump (‘…a lack of common humanity that is, in truth, sociopathic’) he recognises that ‘Trump’s willingness to see America take its place in a multipolar order is something to be grateful for’. The old America-dominated unipolar world that's existed since the fall of the Soviet Union in the late 1980's is now over. ‘A version of isolationism now makes much more sense than the post-cold war vision of US global primacy...The imperatives that drove US strategic commitments in Europe and Asia in the twentieth century are far weaker today.’
- The key changes are the rise of China and India. As China rapidly increases its nuclear capability, the return of nuclear weapons is now centre-stage in power politics. Taiwan has now become the prime focus. What will really happen if China invades Taiwan to restore its ancient identity as a Chinese province? The Australian political establishment, both Labor and the Coalition, keep parroting the line that Australia would support an American response by joining an attack on China, but this is nonsense. ‘It is unthinkable that Australia would join America in a war that America need not fight, that it cannot win and that would quite possibly become a nuclear war...We should tell Washington that we will not go to war over Taiwan’.
- China’s military strength in Asia has overturned America’s. ‘…there is now no serious chance that America can defend Taiwan from China’. China is quickly building a lot more nuclear weapons. White reminds us that in power conflicts the West constantly overestimates then underestimates. We blunder into a needless conflict then realise we can't win: look at Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. In Asia now it ‘could be catastrophic’.
- China wants to push America out of East Asia. In fact Trump ‘has often dismissed the idea that America should defend Taiwan’. But he must know that ‘…if it abandons Taiwan, its entire position in East Asia will be severely, and perhaps fatally, damaged.’ White argues that's inevitable, pivotal, and acceptable. It's the emerging multi-polar order. The ‘balance of power’ strategy is protective. The multipolar order is the future. Small and middle powers will pay a price however, such as Ukraine and Taiwan.
- White is excellent on Ukraine, but realistic. While the first year of the war was successful for Ukraine it now seems it will not decisively defeat Russia, despite average US and EU support. Conceding will of course leave Ukraine forever under Russia’s thumb, but Russia’s nuclear weapons are a real barrier to a Ukrainian victory. America is afraid of Russia employing its nuclear option, so ultimately America cannot defend Ukraine. Trump gets that. Unfortunately Russia’s ambitions will likely not be satisfied just by a settlement of the Ukraine war.
- So we come to NATO. White, although he doesn't predict an end to NATO, does admit that ‘Europe will now have to defend itself, regardless of NATO'. He reminds us that the EU’s combined GDP is as much as ten times Russia’s and has many more tanks and aircraft. (Personally I've long believed that NATO should be dissolved for three reasons: 1. The cold war has ended. 2. The Soviet Union has ended. 3. The EU has been created. Ukraine should apply not to join a dated NATO but to join the European Union). Europe would of course have to create an effective nuclear deterrent.
- White is refreshingly merciless on the Quad: ‘there is nothing to it but a series of meetings’, and of course the ridiculous AUKUS. (As looks increasingly obvious, even Trump will dump AUKUS). And as for ANZUS delusions ‘…a new, beneficial post-alliance relationship can evolve’. Singapore is an example. ‘It is unthinkable that Australia would join America in a war that America need not fight, that it cannot win and that would quite possibly become a nuclear war...We should tell Washington that we will not go to war over Taiwan’.
- He's also clear on Japan and Korea. The US alliance would crumble. Japan will have to go its own way without American protection, as will South Korea. Given China's and North Korea's increasing nuclear capabilities, Japan and South Korea might need to ramp up nuclear capability.
- Australia has yet to confront the new reality, that our future does not rely on the American alliance. Trump is puncturing this complacent optimism, and Biden’s delusions are gone. We do not have a great and powerful friend any more.
- As for our weapons? They won't be nuclear subs, nor surface warships, nor F-35 fighter jets. Uncrewed drones are the future.
- Finally, do you think Albanese and Marles are anywhere near this level of thinking? Oh please.
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