- John Edwards, former economic advisor to PM Paul Keating, has just released this new contribution to the excellent Penguin Specials series of 'concise, original and affordable' contributions to our national debate.
- It's certainly worth reading. He brings together in one handy volume key statistical data and relevant facts. Ironically however, given his decades of political involvement, it's surprisingly disappointing when it comes to critiquing policies that have negatively impacted Australia's economic performance over the last decade or so. In fact it is quite politically naive and tepid.
- It's a ‘no-one’s at fault’ analysis, glossing over real problems and issues. As a stark example the word 'austerity' is never used. Conservative government policies, in Australia and in the West generally, are not critiqued; debt and deficit obsessions are not examined; the profound structural impact of low wages growth is not even superficially surveyed; the lack of needed fiscal stimulus pre-COVID is not criticised; the severe and long term underfunding of essential services like Aged Care and the University sector is completely disregarded; there's nothing on the need to boost GDP growth; nothing on the need for the Reserve Bank, and the government, to prioritise increasing inflation to within the 2-3% band; And, surprisingly, nothing at all on the challenge of climate change and what Australia urgently needs to do.
- It's a ‘no-one’s at fault’ analysis, glossing over real problems and issues. As a stark example the word 'austerity' is never used. Conservative government policies, in Australia and in the West generally, are not critiqued; debt and deficit obsessions are not examined; the profound structural impact of low wages growth is not even superficially surveyed; the lack of needed fiscal stimulus pre-COVID is not criticised; the severe and long term underfunding of essential services like Aged Care and the University sector is completely disregarded; there's nothing on the need to boost GDP growth; nothing on the need for the Reserve Bank, and the government, to prioritise increasing inflation to within the 2-3% band; And, surprisingly, nothing at all on the challenge of climate change and what Australia urgently needs to do.
- The necessary fiscal spending undertaken by the Morrison government to confront the pandemic's severe effect on the economy is at least welcomed, but the debt fetish remains: Long after the pandemic has become a distant memory...the consequences will still be apparent in debt, the cost of servicing debt and the constraints debt will place on government and central bank options. He forecasts that fiscal policy will be contractionary for a decade and perhaps a lot longer. Why? There are just too many conventional banalities here, so typical of a conservative economist. Edwards could do with a dash of Modern Monetary Theory.
- When it comes to the international situation however, Edwards comes into his own. He's very good on the US-China competitive situation, and the recent trade war; and excellent on economic growth rates and likely futures. He's also critical, thankfully, of Australia’s dopey handling of our China relationship, singling out our many anti-dumping cases against China. Australian governments do need to detach themselves from an American point of view on China, and insist on their own’.
- When it comes to the international situation however, Edwards comes into his own. He's very good on the US-China competitive situation, and the recent trade war; and excellent on economic growth rates and likely futures. He's also critical, thankfully, of Australia’s dopey handling of our China relationship, singling out our many anti-dumping cases against China. Australian governments do need to detach themselves from an American point of view on China, and insist on their own’.
- And finally, he's insightful on Australia’s need for continuing globalisation. His view on the impacts of the pandemic on exports and global economies generally is refreshing.
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