Moving Beyond Lockdowns

Covid 2021 

A few days ago I penned a few thoughts on Australia's current Covid challenge:

I think Australia must get to the point where we accept a tolerable level of deaths per year, say 1000 or so. This is in the influenza and road deaths region. At the current death rate of 0.3% of Delta cases, that means we should aim to limit daily cases to approximately 1000 across the country (365,000 per year). We’re around 1300 today.

We may even be forced to accept a sadder scenario - around 2000 deaths per year and 2000 cases per day. Given that 50,000 Australians die every year from various cancers, we may well have to embrace these numbers in order to fully open the economy and our state and international borders.

The problem is stopping rapid outbreaks. People will accept stable numbers but not rapidly increasing ones. That scares them. Our expectation is that aggressive vaccination rates will be the pathway to this stability. The evidence from around the world is that 70-80% of the adult population will be nowhere near enough. We will need to get to 90% of the total population and that will mean child doses for kids aged from three to 12. Over time the daily cases will inevitably decline.

Unfortunately we lack political leadership. We need our Federal and State governments to clearly articulate these realities, and persuade people that these ambitions are not harsh or cruel, but realistic and manageable. We have no other choice. The Delta variant is extremely infectious, and current elimination strategies involving constant lockdowns are incredibly harmful and unrealistic. Getting back to ‘normal’ means accepting the new Delta normal. Last year’s Wuhan variant is long gone. Like in the Cold War our strategy must be one of containment, not suppression. 

The real issue governments need to address involves ensuring the national health infrastructure is able to cope with these Delta realities. Hospitals will need an increased number of well staffed ICU and ventilation facilities, ambulance services will need to be expanded, and fit-for-purpose quarantine facilities built as a matter of urgency. This substantial level of increased investment in the health system needs to be federally funded. It is a national emergency.

The ‘zero case’ ambitions of the smaller states can’t be allowed to continue. They are a Wuhan leftover. All states and territories must embrace today’s challenge. Border closures are unAustralian, unfair and unrealistic given leakages will always happen. Our international border closures must also end.

Vaccine passports must be made mandatory for access to all events, retail, educational, care, travel and hospitality services. Enforcement will likely be a problem however, particularly for small businesses. It will be expensive and could become ugly. Once again the federal government must step in and fund these necessary security measures.