Philip Coggan, The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump

 

 - This short book by former Economist and Financial Times journalist, Philip Coggan, is a masterful demolition of Trump's obsession with tariffs.

- It's an extremely enlightening work, placing everything about tariffs and free trade in an historical and global context. And it's very clearly written. He provides loads of data and statistics, and it's totally up to date. The book has obviously been rushed into print over the last month. References to the ups and downs of what happened as late as the end of June are included. 

- It's very clear to everybody with half a brain that Trump's tariffs would not generate a mass return of manufacturing jobs to the US. The great bulk of the burden of the tariffs would fall on US businesses and consumers. Polls have shown that nearly 90% of Americans agree with that. Prices will increase full stop. And overall, the tariffs represent the largest tax increase on US citizens since 1993, costing the average household US$1,183 in 2025 alone. 

- The decline in manufacturing jobs in the US is part of a long-term trend that has emerged across the developed world, and is caused more by automation than by trade competition. 

- Obviously Trump does not like the multinational order that emerged after the Second World War. The trading system after 1945 was developed by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and then by the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The guiding principal was to create a climate where, as much as possible, nations treated each other equally. The result, over the decades, was a substantial decline in tariffs and an enormous expansion in global trade.   

- Coggan ends his book with a quote from Monty Python's Life of Brian where Reg, played by John Cleese, forcefully dismisses the benefits of Roman rule: 'Apart from the sanitation, the medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, a fresh water system, and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us?'.

One could sum up the message of this book, in the style of Month Python, by saying 'Apart from the failed businesses, lost jobs, goods shortages, hits to consumer and business confidence, weakening of the relationship with key allies and decline of the US's international reputation, Trump has a brilliant plan'.